Poll: Oregonians Favor Legislative Tax Increases

We're a long way and a lot of special-interest spending away from dodging this bullet, but a recent poll shows that Oregonians would reject a repeal of the tax increases if the vote were held today...

62 percent of likely voters would vote “yes” to uphold the legislature’s actions, compared to 26 percent voting “no,” with 11 percent being unsure how they would vote.

Grove Insight conducted the poll on July 29 to August 2, interviewing 500 Oregon registered voters likely to participate in next January’s election, should it take place. The poll carries a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Read Grove Insight’s short analysis (PDF)

This is definitely good news. Spending by pro-repeal forces (with deep, deep pockets) will do a lot to balance that number. If it were closer to 50-50, it would foretell doom. But a 36-point margin is a lot of cushion.


Why This Matters
The bargaining team is currently negotiating with the administration to manage a $21-million cut in state funding to PSU. On the admin side, they're understandably concerned about how to manage the risk of this ballot measure. However, this poll suggests that that risk may be lower than the admin calculates--something we'll have to consider as we look at any proposed compromises on salary.